By Robert Schlesinger
Friend Jack:
I‘m in no hurry to banish Hillary to the sidelines — I think she should stay in the race as long as she would like. I just don’t see how, barring a historic Obama collapse, she gets there from here.
And I’m afraid that’s not the only error in your latest post.
It’s true that the superdelegates will decide the Democratic race, but don’t mistake their silence: They’re not waiting because they savor their roles — they’re waiting while praying to God that someone will take the decision out of their hands. Why unite behind one candidate or the other before, say, Indiana when Hoosier voters could effectively end the race.
The only decision that superdelegates want to make is one that rubber-stamps the will of the party. The last thing they want is to be difference-makers in this process.
So where are we? As I’ve argued before, Obama has a virtually insurmountable pledged delegate lead and a steep popular vote lead. Odds are that he retains both through the end of the primary season. Oh yeah, and he’s also got a shit-ton of money.
Unless Obama craters, I don’t see the argument that she can make to superdelegates that will prompt them to unite behind her — and risk losing black voters for this election and beyond. Democrats don’t get elected to the White House without black voters.
No I don’t think she should end the race until she’s ready. I’m just saying that we should be realistic about the state of the race. The media has bought into this story-line: That her victory in Ohio and partial victory in Texas somehow reset the race, making it a zero-zero game with primaries stretching into June to decide it. But that’s simply not the case. He’s got a big lead. Game over? She’s still got her last at bats, but her outs are dwindling.
If you really think I’m wrong, Jack, I’ll wager a single malt on the matter. I’ll even give you odds. If Hillary emerges as the Democratic nominee, I’ll buy you a bottle of Macallan 12. If Obama is the Democratic standard-bearer you buy me a glass of it.
Game?
I think its unlikely that she will get the nomination without the super delegates going against the voters. It is interesting to see how she will impact Obama’s chances of winning the general election as she continues to hurl attacks at him. The longer this goes on, the better odds for McCain.
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