By Robert Schlesinger
There’s a new surge in Iraq, and the sequel is pointing up the problems with the original.
We have for weeks or months heard about how last year’s surge in U.S. military forces in Iraq was working, and in part it was: Violence declined markedly, giving Iraqis the breathing room they needed to make political progress. But herein lies the problem: Reducing the violence was never enough, as important was what the Iraqi factions were doing in the down-time. If they were learning to play well together then the surge was successful; if they were licking their wounds, rearming and just resting up for the next round … well, witness Basra.
The current conflagration in Basra is demonstrating the Iraqi government forces’ enduring weakness, as well as the factions’ unwillingness to stop killing each other.
As long as the various sides are interested in eliminating each other, there’s little we can do other than get in the way.
And the Iraqi government’s attempt to bring Basra back under control has given U.S. forces plenty of opportunities to be in the way. From Saturday’s NYT:
The operation is deepening the country’s sectarian and political fissures, ones that American military officials repeatedly urged Iraqi leaders to address during the past months of decreased attacks.
At the same time, the surge in violence around the country has underscored the fragility of the security gains of recent months. Just a few weeks ago, many people in Baghdad were feeling confident enough to venture out to restaurants, visit friends and have some sense that they might make it to work safely each morning. But after intense clashes between Mahdi Army fighters and Iraqi and American forces on Thursday, the city is under a strict curfew, its streets and markets deserted and its citizens cowering in their houses, listening for the boom of mortar rounds and the crackle of gunfire.
And:
Around Iraq, sectarian violence also erupted Friday. American forces shelled Asriyah in the Touz Khormato district, about 50 miles northeast of Baghdad, in the province of Kirkuk, killing two civilians. In Diwaniya, in the southeast, Mahdi Army gunmen attacked the mayor’s office in the Gammas District, killing the mayor. In Mahmudiya, fierce clashes broke out between the Mahdi Army and Iraqi and American forces in the city center. And in Nasiriya, northwest of Basra, violence erupted after two days of calm, as Mahdi Army gunmen attacked Iraqi Army tanks that patrolled the city, enforcing a curfew.
The numbers were good, but you need to dig beneath them. The silence in Iraq did not indicate a return to normalcy, as President Bush put it, in the way that he meant. Rather it merely portended a return to the tragic normalcy we hoped to end.
